News
Inequality exposed by climate extremes
Climate change-fuelled extreme weather events disproportionately hit poor communities in 2025.
30 December 2025
Climate change and La Niña fuelled the exceptionally intense downpours that caused catastrophic flooding across Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini in recent weeks, a new study has found.
Reports suggest that as many as 200 people lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands have been impacted, as communities that already face extreme vulnerability to severe weather events were hit hard.
The heavy rainfall also destroyed farming areas and forced the closure of Kruger National Park, leaving the iconic South African wildlife reserve with tens of millions of dollars in damage, the country’s environment minister said.
‘This event demonstrates how climate change can turn an extreme weather event into a long-term health and humanitarian crisis. The National Societies based in each of these countries are seeing not only the immediate devastation of displacement but also the hidden impacts such as the disruption of life-sustaining systems.
‘When floodwaters destroy medical infrastructure and block access to clinics, the consequences for people living in these communities last long after the water recedes. As we continue to move into a climate that is growing ever more volatile, greater investment in community-led preparedness, strengthening trans-national early warning systems, and flood-resilient infrastructure is needed to better protect people from future extremes.’
RENATE MEYER
Technical Advisor Climate and Conflict and Southern Africa focal point, at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
A significant portion of the population lives in informality and faces high flood risk due to rapid urbanisation, insufficient planning and access to basic services. As a result, the prolonged rainfall caused the collapse of many houses and roads and left people displaced long after the rain stopped.
Flooding disrupted life-sustaining systems, cutting off clinic access for the treatment of chronic health conditions, disrupting medical cold-chain infrastructure and affecting drinking water quality and food security.
‘This is a textbook case of climate injustice. The people of South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Eswatini have not contributed to climate change, nor are they profiting from using or selling fossil fuels. Yet they are the ones losing their lives, homes and livelihoods.
‘A 40% increase in rainfall intensity is not some small statistical anomaly. For a family living in an informal settlement, it can be the difference between wet feet and a total structural collapse. We cannot just treat these floods as ‘acts of God.’ They are the direct result of a system built on exploitation and a global failure to phase out fossil fuels.
‘We have the know-how and tools to stop this from getting worse. We now need the political will that prioritises everyone instead of just the very rich and GDP.’
FRIEDERIKE OTTO
Professor of Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
The study found that extreme 10-day rainfall events in the region have become significantly more intense due to human-induced climate change, with observational data showing a 40% increase in rainfall severity since pre-industrial times.
While a 10-day rainfall event of this magnitude remains relatively rare – occurring roughly once every 50 years – it would have been even rarer in a preindustrial climate.
The current weak La Niña phase also played a role in the disaster, increasing the likelihood of such extreme precipitation, and its intensity.
‘In our region, we are used to the influence of La Niña, but climate change is also acting as a force multiplier. This study shows that the natural wet signal of La Niña was amplified by 1.3°C of global warming, creating a perfect storm that overwhelmed the lower Limpopo River basin.
‘This event has caused a collision between a climate that grows more dangerous by the day and the deep-rooted social vulnerabilities that exist here. When 90% of homes are made of sun-dried earth, they simply cannot withstand this much rain. The structural collapse of entire villages is a stark reminder that our communities and infrastructure are now being tested by weather they are just not designed to endure.
‘Sadly, it is the people of this region who have done the least to cause this crisis that are now suffering the most.’
BERNARDINO NHANTUMBO
Climate researcher, INAM National Institute of Meteorology, Maputo, Mozambique
While scientists are very confident that climate change is driving the increased intensity, the precise contribution is difficult to estimate, as climate models did not accurately simulate the event or trend.
However, the observational data confirm a clear move toward more violent downpours. This effect was compounded by the current La Niña, which naturally brings wetter conditions to this part of the world, but is now operating within a much warmer, more moisture-rich atmosphere.
‘The science is clear: human-caused climate change is supercharging rainfall events like this with devastating impacts for those in its path. Our analysis clearly shows that our continued burning of fossil fuels is not only increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall, but turning events that would have happened anyway into something much more severe.
‘While our climate models struggled to pinpoint exactly how much worse this event was made by climate change, a 40% increase in severity in the observational data is impossible to explain without it. Coupled with La Niña, it means what would have already been a serious period of heavy rain has been transformed into a more violent deluge that communities are not equipped to deal with.’
IZIDINE PINTO
Senior climate researcher, KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Climate change-fuelled extreme weather events disproportionately hit poor communities in 2025.
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