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Rapid population growth, poverty and frequent bouts of extreme rainfall are increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s capital city of nearly 18 million people, a team of leading scientists has warned.
The study, by World Weather Attribution, found that similar downpours are expected every two years in the region and could become heavier with fossil fuel warming – but could not quantify the influence of climate change on the recent heavy rains that led to at least 33 deaths.
This was due to data uncertainty, caused partly by limited investment in weather monitoring and climate science in Africa.
‘Data from two weather stations show that rainfall has become up to 19% more intense since 1960.
‘But this evidence isn’t the smoking gun our study was looking for. Because of high uncertainty in global satellite weather datasets and climate model’s outputs, we couldn’t do a full attribution analysis to determine the role of climate change.
‘This failure highlights a deeper problem – climate science has long overlooked much of Africa, particularly the Central African rainforest region. Increased investment in climate science and weather observations is needed to help countries understand and prepare for changing weather extremes.’
DIEUDONNE NSADISA FAKA
Team leader of the intra-ACP Climate Services Programme of The Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States
Large uncertainties in weather datasets and climate models meant scientists could not assess the role of climate change.
However, the study found that investment in weather stations and climate science in Africa will improve preparations for changing extremes.
The study also states that high death tolls and evidence of increasing rainfall highlights the urgent need to prepare for floods in Kinshasa, a low-lying and rapidly growing megacity.
‘Africa needs more attribution studies. We need to understand how our countries are being impacted by climate change and prepare for the future.
‘Unfortunately, the global datasets we rely on often perform poorly in Africa, making it difficult to accurately quantify how climate change is increasing extreme downpours like the recent ones in Kinshasa.
‘As an African scientist, this is incredibly frustrating – climate change is not a problem caused by Africa. Our continent has contributed just 3-4% of global emissions, but is getting pummelled by extreme weather and still isn’t receiving funding for adaptation promised by wealthy countries at global climate summits.’
DR JOYCE KIMUTAI
Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
The floods in Kinshasa occurred on 04-05 April, after heavy rainfall caused the N’Djili River to overflow its banks.
Floodwaters killed at least 33 people, wrecked homes, swept away cars, displaced thousands and cut off access to clean water and electricity.
The disaster follows a worsening humanitarian situation in eastern DRC, where ongoing violence has resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions since January.
Data from two weather stations in Kinshasa indicate that seven-day spells of rainfall have become about 9-19% more intense since 1960.
The finding aligns with scientific studies on rainfall in the DRC and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for Central Africa.
While the increase was not clearly shown in global datasets and climate models, meaning the role of climate change could not be assessed, the scientists say there is a strong possibility of a future increase in heavy rainfall.
A previous World Weather Attribution study on a 2023 flood in eastern DRC faced the same challenges.
In general, climate science has focused on extreme weather events in wealthy countries, meaning the changing risks of events in many African countries are not well understood.
Out of seven World Weather Attribution studies that produced inconclusive results, four focused on weather events in Africa.
Investment in climate science and weather stations in Africa is needed to help countries understand changing extremes and prepare for the future, the researchers say.
This latest study highlights how rapid population growth is putting more people in harm’s way from floods.
Kinshasa is a megacity, home to nearly 18 million people, and its population is expected to double over the next 20 years.
According to the study, many homes are being built in flood-prone riverside areas, and deforestation for construction reduces the ground’s ability to absorb floodwaters.
Limited drainage and sewage systems, particularly around makeshift housing, means the city can experience floods even in moderate rains, the researchers say.
‘The massive impacts from these floods are not surprising.
‘Kinshasa is a densely populated city of around 18 million people. Dozens of rivers flow through the city and when they burst their banks, the consequences can be devastating.
‘There is a need for stronger laws and policies on critical sectors such as risk management and settlements for flood risk management.
‘The city needs to prepare for periods of extreme rainfall, which are common occurrences.’
SHABAN MAWANDA
Policy and Resilience advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
The DRC faces massive developmental challenges to adapt to extreme weather.
Despite being one of the most mineral-rich countries in the world – supplying 70% of cobalt globally, a mineral essential for batteries and reportedly a strategic target of escalating violence in the east – it remains the fourth poorest in the world.
The conflict may impact the country’s ability to respond to weather disasters, the researchers say.
‘Climate change makes it even harder for fragile states to get ahead.
‘The DRC has a long history of international exploitation and much of its population is trapped in grinding poverty. Even after gaining independence, its vast minerals industry – critical for the renewable transition – continues to be dominated by foreign businesses and in recent months, has been the target of brutal rebel violence.
‘Frequent spells of heavy rain are destroying homes, wiping out crops and cancelling economic gains.
‘With every fraction of a degree of fossil fuel warming, the weather will get more violent, creating a more unequal world.’
DR FRIEDERIKE OTTO
Senior lecturer in Climate Science at Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London
In November, COP29 agreed that rich countries, who have benefited the most from industrialisation, and contributed the vast majority of historic carbon dioxide emissions, will raise their financial support to help developing countries cope with climate change to $300 billion by 2035.
In years before COP29, rich countries consistently failed to deliver the adaptation finance promised for developing countries.
The study was conducted by 18 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in the DRC, Rwanda, Sweden, the United States, United Kingdom and Netherlands.
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