News
Inequality exposed by climate extremes
Climate change-fuelled extreme weather events disproportionately hit poor communities in 2025.
30 December 2025
Today (05 January 2026), AccuWeather® has released a new and important study of climate trends for the contiguous United States.
If the identified climate trends continue, they are likely to have major impacts on the US economy, the food and water supply, human comfort levels, energy needs and the health and welfare of citizens over the coming decades.
This AccuWeather study has found that temperatures have increased an average of 0.5°F (0.28°C) per decade over the past 70 years.
Dew point temperatures have increased an average of 0.3°F (0.17°C) per decade over the same period, though most of this increase occurred before 1995.
Relative humidity remained more or less steady until 1995, but then decreased by a significant 5.3%, or an average of 1.7% per decade.
Average annual rainfall has declined 2.7% since 1995, or on average 0.9% per decade, yet the frequency of rainfall amounts greater than 4 inches in a 24-hour period have actually increased by 70%. Likewise, heavy rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches within a 24-hour period have increased by 23%.
This comprehensive study is based on a detailed and error-corrected database of 44 official, geographically dispersed weather stations in AccuWeather’s Data Suite.
‘If these trends continue, the well-known climate models may not be capturing all of the important changes our studies have revealed.
‘What has been surprising in our detailed analysis is the significant decline of rainfall amounts, especially since 1995. Over the last 30 years, average rainfall has been declining by an average of 1% every 11 years, and the rain that does fall is less effective for crop production and maintaining our water supply because it tends to come in shorter bursts. Furthermore, the average relative humidity during the same 30-year period has declined by a very significant 5.3%, which is 1.7% per decade.
‘This means that the rain that does fall is evaporating more quickly and it is less effective for crop production, water supply, and for filling reservoirs, lakes, and other water sources. When you combine these two factors, the ‘effective’ average rainfall across the United States seems to be declining by 2% to 3% per decade. This is quite significant.
‘If these trends continue, we expect to see accelerating harmful impacts on crop production, more frequent wildfires and less available water due to greater drought. Furthermore, the crop-growing areas in the United States may shrink as soil becomes more arid. Even in productive growing areas, crop yields may decline. These effects could become more obvious over the next decade or two.’
DR JOEL MYERS
Founder and executive chair of AccuWeather
The average temperatures from 1955 to 2024 show a clear warming trend. To smooth out year-to-year fluctuations on the annual datasets, AccuWeather created averages over a 10-year period, which show an increase of 3°F (1.66°C), or an average of 0.5°F (0.28°C) per decade.
Yet, the average dew point temperature over the same period only increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C), or 0.3°F (0.17°C) per decade. Since 1995, the dew point temperature has not changed much; nearly all the increase occurred in a period from 1960 to 2000. If these trends continue, there could be serious implications for many industries including agriculture, those impacted by a decline in water supply and the increasing frequency of wildfires because the drying will accelerate.
There will be less and less moisture in the soil to dampen the rise in temperature because of the heat needed to evaporate moisture from the soil. This could also mean that the heating will accelerate.
‘A stark example of this occurred during the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. Despite the overall increase in average temperature across the United States over the last 100 years, the all-time record high temperatures in 23 states and Washington D.C. still stand from the Dust Bowl years. That was also a decade that featured extraordinary drought. Dry soil increases the risk of extreme heat.
‘As the soil and the ground becomes drier, the warming of the air and the ground could accelerate beyond what the climate models are currently predicting. The reason for that is moisture in the soil provides a major dampening of heating. Evaporation of water utilises a great deal of heat, as you learned in physics, 540 calories per gram of water. That means the same amount of heat is used to evaporate one cubic centimetre of water as is needed to raise the temperature of an equal amount of soil by scores of degrees or more.’
DR JOEL MYERS
Founder and executive chair of AccuWeather
Lack of moisture in the soil also decreases the conductivity of heat deeper into the ground, so the heating from the sun is concentrated at the top level of the ground, therefore causing greater increases in air temperature.
This connection between dry soil and extremely hot temperatures has been well known for a long time, but perhaps is not being fully considered in climate predictions we have heard.
‘Furthermore, when the soil is drier, there tends to be more dust and soil in the air. Heat then leads to increased drought. You have more soil particles in the atmosphere, more dust competing for nuclei for droplets, so you get more water droplets that are smaller and have trouble falling out of the clouds, so you get less rain. Less rain means drier and hotter soil which brings drought and drought brings heat and you have a cycle that is running away. That is the concern.’
DR JOEL MYERS
Founder and executive chair of AccuWeather
Climate fluctuations and trends over 10, 20 or 30 years can reverse. There are no assurances these trends AccuWeather has found will continue, slow down or possibly even reverse.
It is also important to note that these are averages for the nation as a whole; different regions may have more dramatic changes and other areas much less dramatic changes.
To highlight long-term climate signals that can be hidden by year-to-year variability, AccuWeather averaged the data over 10- and 20-year periods. This smoothing method filters out short-term fluctuations and reveals the underlying climate signals.
The Earth’s climate has undergone significant natural variations throughout history. For example, we were in the last major ice age only 120 centuries ago. More recently, the period known as the Little Ice Age ended only 175 years ago.
These examples underscore that climate conditions can evolve in ways that are not always linear or predictable. Even though the meteorological community uses 30 years to define normals, some cycles operate on longer time periods.
‘Warm air can hold more water vapour than cooler air. So, as the temperature rises, there is the potential for more water vapour in the atmosphere. When atmospheric mechanisms to transform that water vapour into liquid water are present, such as in thunderstorms, the rainfall amounts in those events tends to be higher.
‘What is seemingly happening here is the average temperature and dew point increased together up until 1995, and so the average relative humidity more or less remained constant. Since 1995 however, the average temperature continued to increase, but the dew point levelled off, and that caused a significant drop in relative humidity. This suggests we reached a tipping point around 1995, as the temperature continued to increase, evaporation from the ground and vegetation could not keep up with the increase in temperature, and so the dew point has not been able to increase as quickly as the temperature over the last 30 years, resulting in a decline of relative humidity. If this trend continues, desert areas will expand.
‘To be more specific, the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapour approximately doubles for every 20-degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature. A common measure of the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is the dew point, which is the temperature at which saturation occurs when the air is cooled. This means if the temperature and dew point are both 50°F (10°C), the relative humidity is 100%. If you increase the temperature to 70°F (21.1°C) and do not increase the amount of water vapour in the air, the relative humidity falls to 50%. If you then raise the temperature even further to 90°F (32.2°C), the relative humidity falls to 25%, and so on.’
DR JOEL MYERS
Founder and executive chair of AccuWeather
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