Energy & Climate
‘Murder on a mass scale’
‘Sunbathers’ protest new oil outside Parliament as heatwave kicks in.
7 July 2026
More than 2,700 people are thought to have died from heat-related causes during the May and June heatwaves in England and Wales. Of those, it’s estimated that 42% died as a result of the extra heat caused by human-induced warming.
Researchers from Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine used historical mortality records and established peer-reviewed methods to model fatalities during both heat spikes.
As Scotland and Northern Ireland were not impacted by such extreme temperatures, they focused on England and Wales.
Both events were record-breaking due to the impacts of climate change. The national record for May was broken when 35.1°C was recorded in West London, and three consecutive days of record-breaking June temperatures culminated with heat in excess of 37°C in East Anglia.
Such high temperatures would be extreme even at the height of mid-summer, with July and August typically bringing the UK’s peak summer temperatures.
With the UK now regularly experiencing temperatures far beyond historical norms, the findings illustrate the importance of heat adaptation to protect the most vulnerable during future heatwaves, and underline the necessity of reaching net zero emissions globally.
‘This is yet more evidence that extreme heat driven largely by fossil fuel emissions is a full-blown public health emergency and a matter of life and death for vulnerable people. From those dying prematurely to the millions feeling ill in boiling homes that don’t cool even at night, this abnormal heat is stretching our health and infrastructure to breaking point.
‘These numbers are deeply concerning, and the summer’s barely started. We desperately need an extreme heat strategy from the government to heat-proof schools, hospitals and care homes, protect workers, and upgrade our infrastructure. This is going to cost, so ministers must stop fossil fuel companies from making the problem worse and make them pay their fair share to fix it.’ANGHARAD HOPKINSON
Greenpeace UK political campaigner
About 550 people are estimated to have died due to heat-related causes during the May heatwave (21-29 May 2026) and about 2,200 during the June heatwave (18-28 June 2026) in England and Wales.
Approximately 59% of the deaths in May, and 38% in June are attributable to the additional heat added by human-caused climate change. Across both events, that amounts to about 42% of heat-related deaths.
‘These modelled estimates are based on past trends in temperature effects on mortality and provide an important indication of the potential health impacts of sustained hot weather, particularly for the most vulnerable among us. While they are not a measure of observed mortality, they help illustrate the scale of risk associated with extreme heat and the growing threat climate change poses to our wellbeing.
‘As set out in our most recent ‘Health Effects of Climate Change’ report, periods of heat in the UK are likely to become more intense, longer and more frequent as the world continues to warm. UKHSA continues to develop its guidance and evidence, working with partners to protect the most vulnerable in our society who are most likely to feel the impacts of hot weather, including through the Adverse Weather and Health Plan and the Weather-Health Alerting system.’
PROFESSOR LEA BERRANG FORD
Head of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Centre for Climate and Health Security (CCHS)
Daytime maximum temperatures across England and Wales are now roughly 3-4°C hotter than they would have been without human-induced climate change, raising the health risks associated with these heatwaves. Without this extra warming, temperatures of this severity would have been far less likely to occur.
While southern England saw the highest temperatures, estimates suggest the death rate (per million population) was similar in the Midlands. With this region less frequently exposed to extreme heat, it suggests residents there are more vulnerable to the impacts.
‘Every time we have a heatwave, our news is filled with reporters at swimming pools, images of people eating ice cream and sunbathers on beaches. We all love the sun, but people need to be aware that we are now seeing dangerous climate-change fuelled heat that is claiming lives, disrupting schools and hospitals and shutting down transport and infrastructure.
‘It’s time we woke up to the fact that we now live in a country with dangerously hot summers. To protect people during future extremes, we must urgently adapt to the reality of the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to reach net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse.’
DR CLAIR BARNES
Research Associate in Extreme Weather and Climate Change, Imperial College London
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