Energy & Climate
21 March 2025
Main image: the fortress of Ayaz Kala & Toprak Kala in Uzbekistan, around 100km from Khiva at the border of the desert. They were two of the outposts built to protect the silk road.
A recent heatwave in Central Asia was up to 10°C hotter compared with the preindustrial climate, a rapid analysis has found.
The study by World Weather Attribution found that climate change made the heatwave about 4°C more intense overall, however, the scientists warn the result is likely an underestimate as models do not capture the unusually high increases in March temperatures across the region.
The analysis found that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan recorded March temperatures that were up to 15°C above average.
Climate change intensified the heat by about 4°C, but this is likely an underestimate, as models fail to capture the region’s unusually rapid March temperature increases.
The report also states that shrinking glaciers threaten glacial water supply for drinking, farming and hydroelectricity as the climate warms.
‘Our heatwave studies often detect changes of 2 to 4°C, so 10°C is quite frankly bonkers.
‘As a climate scientist, these are the kind of changes that seem unreal, and more study is needed to unpick what is causing this unprecedented heating.
‘However, fossil fuel burning is fundamentally altering the climate faster than humans have ever experienced.’
DR BEN CLARKE
Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan recently experienced unusually intense heat.
The countries normally record cool spring-time temperatures around 10°C, but in late March, temperatures climbed close to 30°C across the region.
Climate change, caused primarily by the burning of oil, gas and coal, intensified the heat.
An analysis of weather data found the five-day spell of high temperatures was 5-10°C hotter compared with the preindustrial climate.
The scientists then combined weather data with climate models and found that climate change made the temperatures around 4°C hotter overall.
However, they warn the influence of climate change could be much higher – March is heating up much faster than any other month in the region, a trend that is not captured by climate models.
‘This is a heatwave that didn’t make headlines – it happened in spring and in a region that isn’t exactly known for blistering heatwaves.
‘However, it shows the far-reaching consequences of climate change.
‘A heatwave like this can have impacts on agricultural workers, yields, hydroelectric power, glacier-fed irrigation, and drinking water availability in the months to come.’
MAJA VAHLBERG
Technical adviser at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Even as an underestimate, the 4°C change represents the second-largest increase of the 27 heat events studied by World Weather Attribution, with a change of up to 4.3°C in a spring-time heatwave that hit South America in 2023 being the most intense increase due to climate change.
Similarly warm five-day spells in March are no longer rare events in Central Asia because of climate change, the study found.
In today’s climate, with 1.3°C of human-caused global warming, similar extreme heat events in March can be expected about once every three years.
With further warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels, similar heat events will become hotter and more frequent.
‘Attribution analyses involve two key steps – the first is looking at weather data to see how an event is worsening as the climate warms; the second is to analyse climate models to understand how much of the increase is due to climate change.
‘In many regions of the world, the climate is heating much faster than models predict, and we’re only just beginning to understand why that is.
‘This means that many attribution studies actually underestimate the true influence of climate change on heatwaves.’
DR CLAIR BARNES
Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
The study highlights how hotter temperatures are impacting agriculture. The heat coincided with the blooming of almonds, apricots and cherries, and the sowing of wheat.
Unusually high temperatures are known to cause the premature drop of these fruits, as well as decreased harvests of wheat, which are also threatened by more frequent drought in the region, the scientists say.
‘Climate change is death by a thousand cuts. People often focus on major tipping points, but with every fraction of a degree of warming, life slowly becomes more expensive and more dangerous.
‘This heatwave is a perfect example – hotter March temperatures are impacting agriculture harvests and access to water in Central Asia, as well as people’s health.
‘If countries keep drilling and burning, climate impacts will continue to make life much harder.’
DR FRIEDERIKE OTTO
Co-lead of World Weather Attribution and senior lecturer in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
The melting of glaciers caused by the heat fuelled by climate change threatens water supplies for drinking, farming and hydroelectricity generation in the countries, the study highlights.
Several snow and glacial-fed rivers in the region flow are shared by multiple countries, like the Syr Darya river, which flows through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Cross-boundary management of water rivers is essential to maintain access to water and prevent conflict, the researchers say.
The study was conducted by 10 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States and the United Kingdom.
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