Running on empty

2025’s Adaptation Gap Report reveals slow climate adaptation is threatening lives and economies

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Published: October 29, 2025
This Article was written by: Katie Hill - My Green Pod
climate change, climate justice, community, economy, environment, human rights, inequality

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Amid rising global temperatures and intensifying climate impacts, a yawning gap in adaptation finance for developing countries is putting lives, livelihoods and entire economies at risk.

This is the headline finding of the Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Released to inform negotiations at COP30 in Belém, Brazil the report finds that while adaptation planning and implementation are improving, adaptation finance needs in developing countries by 2035 are over $310 billion per year – 12 times as much as current international public adaptation finance flows.

‘Every person on this planet is living with the impacts of climate change: wildfires, heatwaves, desertification, floods, rising costs and more.

‘As action to cut greenhouse gas emissions continues to lag, these impacts will only get worse, harming more people and causing significant economic damage.

‘We need a global push to increase adaptation finance – from both public and private sources – without adding to the debt burdens of vulnerable nations. Even amid tight budgets and competing priorities, the reality is simple: if we do not invest in adaptation now, we will face escalating costs every year.’

INGER ANDERSEN
Executive director of UNEP

A worrying gap

The figure of $310 billion needed to finance adaptation in developing countries per year by 2035 is based on modelled costs.

When basing estimates on extrapolated needs expressed in Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans, this figure rises to $365 billion.

These numbers are based on 2023 values and not adjusted for inflation.

International public adaptation finance flows to developing countries were $26 billion in 2023, down from $28 billion the previous year.

This leaves an adaptation finance gap of $284-339 billion per year – 12 to 14 times as much as current flows.

The previous AGR estimate was $194-366 billion for the year 2030.

If current trends in financing do not turn around quickly, the Glasgow Climate Pact goal of doubling international public adaptation finance from 2019 levels to approximately $40 billion by 2025 will not be achieved.

Planning on the rise

Some 172 countries have at least one national adaptation policy, strategy or plan in place; only four countries have not started developing a plan.

However, 36 of the 172 countries possess instruments that are outdated or have not been updated in at least a decade.

This should be addressed to minimise the possibility of maladaptation.

In the Biennial Transparency Reports – submitted under the Paris Agreement to outline progress in meeting climate pledges – countries reported on over 1,600 implemented adaptation actions, mostly on biodiversity, agriculture, water and infrastructure.

However, few countries are reporting on actual outcomes and impacts, which are needed to assess their effectiveness and adequacy.

At the same time, support for new projects under the Adaptation Fund, the Global Environment Facility and the Green Climate Fund grew to nearly $920 million in 2024.

This is an increase of 86% over the five-year moving average of $494 million between 2019 and 2023.

However, this may only be a spike, with emerging financial constraints making the future uncertain.

Public and private finance

The New Collective Quantified Goal for climate finance, agreed at COP29, calls for developed nations to provide at least $300 billion for climate action in developing countries per year by 2035.

This is insufficient to close the finance gap, for two reasons. First, if the past decade’s inflation rate is extended to 2035, the estimated adaptation finance needed by developing countries goes from $310-365 billion per year in 2023 prices to $440-520 billion per year.

Second, the $300 billion target is for both mitigation and adaptation, meaning that adaption would receive a lower share.

The Baku to Belém Roadmap to raise $1.3 trillion by 2035 could make a huge difference – but care must be taken not to increase the vulnerabilities of developing nations.

Grants, and concessional and non-debt-creating instruments, are essential to avoid increasing indebtedness, which would make it harder for vulnerable countries to invest in adaptation.

For the roadmap to work, the international community must contain the adaptation finance gap through mitigation and avoiding maladaptation, increase funding with the help of new providers and instruments and engage more finance actors in integrating climate resilience into financial decision-making.

While the private sector must do more, the report estimates the realistic potential for private-sector investment in national public adaptation priorities at $50 billion per year.

This compares with current private flows of around $5 billion per year.

Reaching $50 billion would require targeted policy action and blended finance solutions, with concessionary public finance used to de-risk and scale-up private investment. 