Energy & Climate
‘Roasting the planet’
Emissions from major global meat & dairy companies rival those of Saudi Arabia.
20 October 2025
A comprehensive study, led by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden has analysed the potential effects of a food tax shift – where VAT is removed from healthy foods and levies are introduced on foods that have a negative impact on the climate.
The study shows that a shift in taxes could have both environmental and human health benefits, and cause 700 fewer people in Sweden to die prematurely each year.
Today, diet in many high-income countries is a leading risk factor for certain diseases and premature death.
In Western Europe, unhealthy diets cause many times more deaths annually than high levels of alcohol consumption, and about as many deaths as smoking.
What we eat also has a very negative impacts on the climate. In Sweden, the negative impact on the climate from food consumption is roughly twice that of the direct emissions from all Swedish passenger car traffic.
Current policy initiatives mainly rely on providing dietary guidelines. The European Commission’s own advisory body, Science Advice for Policy by European Academies (SAPEA), has recommended economic incentives to encourage healthier diets.
This new study analysed how such incentives could be implemented in practice using a food tax shift, and what effects a reform of this kind might have.
The case examined was Sweden – but, according to the researchers, the results are relevant for most high-income countries.
The study was carried out by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, Karolinska Institutet and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
‘Today’s diets are making us sick and negatively impacting the climate. If we want to do something about this collectively, taxes and subsidies are a good way forward.
‘Our research also shows that this can be done without the average trip to the supermarket for groceries becoming more expensive when selective taxes on certain food groups are compensated by removing VAT on other food groups.’
JÖRGEN LARSSON
Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, study lead
With a food tax shift, VAT would be removed from some of the foods we should be eating more of, according to studies such as the recently released EAT Lancet report.
The researchers also calculated the effects of imposing levies on certain foods that have a big impact on the climate.
According to the study, the dietary changes anticipated by a shift in food tax could prevent about 700 deaths annually among people under 70 in Sweden. For reference, there are around 200 road traffic deaths in Sweden annually.
‘This high figure surprised us, and yet it is a conservative estimate. There is also a lot of suffering associated with unhealthy diets that is not apparent in this figure, such as living with obesity or type 2 diabetes.’
JÖRGEN LARSSON
Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, study lead
The food tax shift would also reduce the climate footprint of Swedes’ food consumption by an equivalent of about 700,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
This is equivalent to an 8%reduction in emissions from all passenger cars – or nearly one in 10 cars disappearing from Sweden’s roads.
The study focused on four food groups: fruits, vegetables, legumes; whole grain products; beef, lamb, pork and processed meat and sugar-sweetened beverages.
The researchers focused on foods with robust scientific evidence for their effects on health or the climate, where reduced consumption of beef and lamb would benefit the climate, while other measures would mainly have health-promoting effects.
VAT would therefore be removed for fruit, vegetables, legumes and whole grain products, and levies introduced on sugar-sweetened beverages, beef, lamb, pork and processed meat.
‘That the price of food affects the level of consumption is well known. A historical example is beef consumption, which increased by 50% in Sweden during the 1990s, largely attributable to the price of beef almost halving after Sweden’s entry into the EU.’
JÖRGEN LARSSON
Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, study lead
The study’s calculations were based on current VAT levels in Sweden, and confirm that price changes have a big impact on what consumers put in their shopping trolleys.
The removal of VAT would reduce the price level of these products by almost 11%, leading to an increase in consumption of, for example, 10% for whole grain bread and 4% for fruit and vegetables.
The levy on sugar-sweetened beverages would increase the price by around 17%, which the researchers estimated would reduce consumption by about a quarter.
The biggest difference for Swedish consumers would be in the prices of beef and lamb, where the tax shift would mean a price increase of around 25%, or almost 3 euros per kilo. This is estimated to reduce meat consumption by 19%.
‘While it might seem to be a big price increase, it would also lead to a decrease in meat consumption in Sweden by one-fifth – thus returning meat consumption to the same level as in the 1990s. Not everyone needs to become vegetarian for the sake of the climate, but with more moderate consumption, a lot stands to be gained.’
JÖRGEN LARSSON
Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, study lead
Increases in the price of food usually hit low-income earners harder because this group spends a larger proportion of their income on food.
But with the proposed tax shift, some foods would be more expensive and others cheaper, something the researchers see as an advantage for gaining public acceptance for the change.
‘That the reform is also cost-neutral for central government also improves the chances of its implementation. In the long term, a food tax shift would benefit central government economically through better public health, reduced sick leave, and lower costs for health care.’
JÖRGEN LARSSON
Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology, study lead
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