At the request of Secretary of State for Energy Ed Miliband, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has offered advice on the level of the country’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to cut global emissions.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are emissions reduction targets. All Parties to the Paris Agreement are required to communicate NDCs at least nine to 12 months ahead of the relevant Conference of the Parties (COP); this round of NDCs, setting targets for 2035, was due to be communicated between November 2024 and February 2025.
The CCC recommends that the UK’s NDC commits to reduce territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035.
This is based on the CCC’s advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, due to be published in February 2025. It is informed by the latest science, technological developments and the UK’s national circumstances.
The recommendation came ahead of COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the government is expected to announce its new target.
While the government is not obliged to follow the CCC’s advice, it has almost always done so in the past.
‘With climate damages already felt around the world, targeting an 81% emissions reduction by 2035 sets the right level of ambition. Our analysis shows this can be achieved in a way that benefits jobs and the economy, provided we hit the country’s 2030 target – set in line with the CCC’s advice in 2020.
‘The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. Investment in low-carbon technologies – electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewables – needs to come now for this target to be achievable. Businesses will start to invest when they have confidence in what the government’s long-term policy plans are. We need to see the government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming Budget.
‘More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the United Kingdom can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.’
PROFESSOR PIERS FORSTER
Interim chair of the Climate Change Committee
The CCC’s advice on the NDC does not include international aviation and shipping (IAS) emissions in the target. This is in line with UNFCCC convention.
The 2030 NDC is a 68% reduction against 1990 levels, which also don’t include IAS emissions.
The CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget (published in 2020) includes the year 2035. The emissions reduction in the Sixth Carbon Budget for 2035 is 78% against 1990 levels.
The Sixth Carbon Budget advice does include IAS emissions, and these emissions must be addressed to meet this target.
Today’s advice on the 2035 NDC is informed by the latest science, as required by the UNFCCC. Emissions accounting has changed slightly since the publication of the Sixth Carbon Budget; the recommended 81% is consistent with the ambition legislated in the Sixth Carbon Budget.
‘As hurricanes, wildfires and floods continue to destroy homes and livelihoods across the world we urgently need to see the boldest possible commitments from countries to reduce emissions by 2035. The UN has just warned that the 1.5C target is on life support, and that action in the next decade particularly by wealthier countries is critical to its survival.
‘The Climate Change Committee has given ministers a useful benchmark for climate action but they may want to aim higher to show true global leadership and take full responsibility for the UK’s historic role as a major carbon polluter.
‘Actions speak louder than words, and true leadership means the government must also set out tangible plans to deliver on its 2035 target. They should confirm Labour’s manifesto promise to end new oil and gas licences, at least triple renewables and double energy efficiency rates by 2030, and properly support workers to transition away from polluting industries.’
DR DOUG PARR
Policy director at Greenpeace UK
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