Energy & Climate
Climate change & LA wildfires
New study: climate change ‘made deadly Los Angeles wildfires more likely’.
30 January 2025
Main image: Lago verde lake at Los Alerces national park, Argentina
Human-induced climate change made the weather that accompanied recent wildfires in Chile and Argentina about 2.5 to 3 times more likely, according to a new analysis by World Weather Attribution.
La Niña is also shown to have played a lesser role in promoting the dry conditions. The scientists calculated that the impacted regions are now receiving 20-25% less rainfall than they would have in a world without the burning of fossil fuels.
From 17-19 January, severe wildfires tore through the Chilean regions of Biobío and Ñuble, killing 23 people, destroying over 1,000 homes and forcing 52,000 people to flee. The fire weather was driven by temperatures exceeding 37°C and fierce winds of 40km/h.
‘Science clearly shows that climate change is making the conditions that wildfires thrive on more likely. But it is often our preparedness that can determine the scale of a disaster.
‘Ignoring climate change just makes it much more dangerous. As fire risks grow, proactive investment in fire management capacity plays a critical role in protecting communities and their natural heritage.’
DR FRIEDERIKE OTTO
Professor of Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
On 05 January, blazes also broke out over the border in Argentina’s Chubut province, impacting areas of high ecological importance such as the UNESCO-listed Los Alerces National Park in Patagonia, home to ancient Alerce trees that can live for over 3,000 years.
Large budget cuts for fire management in neighbouring Argentina are believed to have amplified the crisis.
‘These fires are striking at the heart of our communities and natural heritage. In Patagonia, we are seeing blazes threaten the Alerce trees – ancient giants that have stood undisturbed for thousands of years.
‘The combination of human-induced warming and natural cycles like La Niña has created an aridity that fires thrive on. For Chile and Argentina, the drying of our landscapes is no longer a projection, but a crisis that needs an urgent response to protect our unique biodiversity and the people of our region.’
DR JUAN ANTONIO RIVERA
Argentine Institute of Nivology, Glaciology and Environmental Sciences (IANIGLA), Scientific and Technological Center (CCT) – CONICET in Mendoza, Argentina
Human-induced climate change made the hot, dry and windy (HDWI) weather during the two days of intense fire activity in Chile about three times more likely. The five-day fire weather in Patagonia was made about 2.5 times more likely.
Rainfall during the early summer season (November-January) has decreased by about 25% in the Chilean study region and by about 20% in the Patagonian study region, when compared with a climate without human-caused emissions.
The current La Niña and the Southern Annular Mode can promote conditions that further favour hot and dry weather. The exact effect of each on fire weather conditions and low rainfall can, however, vary depending on when in the season fires occur.
‘Our analysis shows a clear and dangerous fingerprint of climate change on these fires. By burning fossil fuels, we have essentially loaded the dice, making the conditions for these devastating blazes more likely.
‘We are also seeing early summer rainfall dropping by as much as 25% primarily as a result of carbon emissions. This not only causes drier vegetation in Chile and Argentina that fires can feed on, but water scarcity concerns for the people who live here too.’
DR CLAIR BARNES
Research associate in Extreme Weather and Climate Change at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
The expansion of non-native pine plantations and invasive species has created highly flammable landscapes in Chile that can be dangerously close to where people live.
In Argentina, fire management budgets have been slashed, hampering the ability of agencies to respond to the Patagonian fires. Reductions in forest ranger numbers have also weakened local evacuation and response systems.
‘The intensity of these fires is a climate issue, but the human impact can be seen partly as a vulnerability issue. In Chile, the proximity of flammable pine plantations and human settlements puts lives and livelihoods at risk.
‘As we are seeing more extreme ‘fire weather’, we must adapt to ensure rapid early-warning systems and better urban planning so new homes are not built that face unacceptable risk.
‘To save lives, we must address not only the emissions driving rising temperatures, but also the local exposure that leaves communities so vulnerable. Strengthening anticipatory action measures – such as the Chilean Red Cross Anticipatory Action Protocol for wildfires, the first of its kind in the world – must be a priority.’
AYNUR KADIHASANOGLU
Senior Urban Specialist, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
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