Energy & Climate
‘Roasting the planet’
Emissions from major global meat & dairy companies rival those of Saudi Arabia.
20 October 2025
A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared with 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report.
Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared with 3.1°C last year.
However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C.
This means the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle.
Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.
The report finds that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily.
This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.
‘Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target.
‘While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.
‘But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.’
INGER ANDERSEN
Executive director of UNEP
The report finds that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63% of greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025.
In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets.
Aligning with the Paris Agreement requires rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions above the pledges – a task made harder by emissions growing 2.3% year-on-year to 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2024.
Emissions in 2030 would have to fall 25% from 2019 levels for 2°C pathways, and 40% for 1.5°C pathways – with only five years left to achieve this goal.
Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by about 15% compared with 2019 levels – though the US withdrawal will change these figures.
These reductions are far below the 35% and 55% needed in 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively.
The size of the cuts required, and the short time left to deliver them, means that the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5°C, very likely within the next decade.
Stringent near-term cuts to emissions could delay the onset of overshoot, but not avoid it entirely.
The big task ahead is to strive to make this overshoot temporary and minimal, through rapid emissions cuts that keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 in the realms of possibility.
Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all nations – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest – and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts.
Minimising overshoot would also reduce reliance on uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal methods – which would need to permanently remove and store about five years of current global annual CO2 emissions to reverse each 0.1°C of overshoot.
The report looks at a ‘rapid mitigation action from 2025’ scenario, which is designed to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66% chance, and return to 1.5°C by 2100.
Under this scenario, 2030 emissions would have to fall by 26% and 2035 emissions by 46% compared with 2019 levels.
‘How many warnings do we need? The time is now, but our leaders are asleep at the wheel, on a collision course to more devastating storms like Hurricane Melissa, human suffering, economic damages and climate injustice.
‘It’s time to act. Warnings of a 1.5°C overshoot must be a rallying call for action and yet 2035 climate action plans have failed to bridge the ambition gap. We’re still only inching forward on cutting our emissions despite the demands of people and communities around the world.”
‘We have the renewable energy solutions and we are making progress, but emissions are still rising, the transition away from fossil fuels is too slow, and national climate action plans are barely moving the needle. It’s time for G20 countries, above all developed countries, to grab the wheel and really lead the transition, starting at COP30, where a global response plan to accelerate action must be agreed.’
JASPER INVENTOR
Deputy Programme Director Greenpeace International
Since the Paris Agreement was adopted 10 years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C.
The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available.
Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so.
However, delivering faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, a massive increase in support to developing countries and redesigning the international financial architecture.
G20 action and leadership will be pivotal as G20 members – excluding the African Union – account for 77% of global emissions.
Seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with targets for 2035, while three members have announced such targets.
However, these pledges are not ambitious enough; G20 members are collectively not on track to achieve even their 2030 NDC targets, and G20 emissions rose by 0.7% in 2024 – all pointing to the need for a massive ramp up in action by the biggest emitters.
Emissions from major global meat & dairy companies rival those of Saudi Arabia.
Climate Change Committee advises UK reduces emissions by 81% by 2035.
It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a massive G20-led mobilisation to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today.
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