‘A devastating report’

Glasgow has a massive credibility, action and commitment gap as the world is heading to at least 2.4 ̊C of warming, if not more, the Climate Action Tracker warned yesterday (09 November) in its annual global update at the COP26 climate talks.

The CAT warned that the ‘good news’ of the potential impact of announced net zero targets was bringing false hope to the reality of the warming resulting from government inaction.

The CAT analysis found that taking into account 2030 pledges alone, the global temperature increase will be at 2.4ºC in 2100.

From analysing what countries are actually doing (not proposals) the predicted rise is even higher, standing at 2.7ºC.

‘This new calculation is like a telescope trained on an asteroid heading for Earth. It’s a devastating report that in any sane world would cause governments in Glasgow to immediately set aside their differences and work with uncompromising vigour for a deal to save our common future. Instead we’re seeing subversion, sabotage and selfishness from the powerful, while vulnerable countries fight for their lives and youth activists cry out for justice. You have to ask, where is the empathy?

‘We have until the weekend to turn this thing around. That means countries agreeing how they’re going come back next year and every year after that until the gap to 1.5ºC is closed. The Ministers shouldn’t leave this city until they’ve nailed that.

‘We also need to see a signal to phase out fossil fuels in the final decision text, and richer countries need to come good on their promise of money for less developed countries to adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis, develop clean energy systems and transition away from fossil fuels. We’ve just been told what the future holds. Everybody knows what we need to do to change it. No more excuses, time’s up, our leaders need to deliver, and now.’

JENNIFER MORGAN
Greenpeace international executive director

Carbon Action Tracker key updates

This year’s update revealed that with all target pledges, including those made in Glasgow, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will still be around twice as high as necessary for the 1.5°C limit.

Stalled momentum from leaders and governments on their short-term targets has narrowed the 2030 emissions gap by only 15-17% over the last year.

With 2030 pledges alone – without longer term targets – global temperature increase will be at 2.4°C in 2100.

The projected warming from current policies (not proposals) – what countries are actually doing – is even higher, at 2.7 ̊C with only a 0.2 ̊C improvement over the last year and nearly one degree above the net-zero announcements governments have made.

Since the April 2021 Biden Leaders’ Summit, the CAT’s standard ‘pledges and targets’ scenario temperature estimate of all NDCs and binding long-term targets has dropped by 0.3°C to 2.1°C, primarily down to the inclusion of the US and China’s net-zero targets, now formalised in their long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC.

While the projected warming from all net-zero announcements, if fully implemented – the CAT’s ‘optimistic scenario’ – is down to 1.8 ̊C by 2100. This estimate is far from positive news, given the quality of the net-zero goals and the massive ambition and action gap in 2030.

This ‘optimistic’ pathway is a long way from the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 ̊C limit, with peak 21st-century warming of 1.9 ̊C and about a 16% chance of exceeding a warming of 2.4 ̊C.